The speed at which new business systems grow is becoming exponentially faster. Lower barriers to entry for many business sectors have made Clayton Christensen's "Innovators Dilemma" more real than ever. It feels as if, every day we hear about young start-ups achieving things that established corporations could never achieve. I have noticed this in my own career, having worked for both small and large advertising agencies, and I can tell you first hand that the small shops are more nimble and adaptive than the larger ones (no shock there). Bigger agencies have certain advantages, but in the world of advertising, the pros of the small agency outweigh those of the large one (in my humble opinion).
Now that I have given my opinion about how disruptive business models have benefited the small advertising agency, I want to address how disruptive business models are currently effecting technology companies, and subsequently the way we socialize online.
At the current time there is a battle going on over the ability to port social data across the web. The way in which the combat is unfolding seems to exemplify how newer, smaller technology companies are able to get to market faster, achieve critical mass sooner -establishing themselves as the industry leaders. For the duration of this post (and when I talk about this topic in the future) I will refer to this topic as The Battle for the Open Web.
It is inevitable that that the mashable, interoperable, read/write, mixable, distributed web will be the paradigm that will lead to the future growth and maturation of the internet. The companies that best capitalize on this new, distributed web will reign supreme. The question is; who will it be? Some may think this battle has already been won--it is my opinion that the battle has just begun.
Enter the warriors:
- Facebook Connect
- Google Friend Connect
- Yahoo (with their new partnership with JS-KIT)
- Apple's MobileMe (c'mon, I had to throw apple in there)
- Twitter (I am not sure exactly how this could play out, but I would not rule it out)
- A little known start up not yet considered
When the Battle for the Open Web first began, the only formidable competitors were Friend Connect and Facebook Connect. I had my money on Google, as I favored their approach to open standards. Yahoo has now thrown their hat in the ring; also employing open standards (you have to love Yahoo for their adoption of open standards). It has, however, become apparent that the employment of open standards is not enough to win this war.
There is little denying that Facebook is to the social web, what Google was/is to search engines. I cannot imagine Facebook building a search brand that could overtake the all-powerful Google, and I am beginning to think that it may be impossible for Google to build their brand into something synonymous with the social graph. As far as Yahoo is concerned--I love them, but have little hope that they can become a worthy opponent to the two category leaders.
Facebook is still young, nimble and best of all, privately held. The fact that they are not a public company plays a huge factor in their ability to innovate. They can roll out, and roll back products with ease, without the extra headache of answering to a public board. The ability to employ a test and learn mindset (something that Google was notorious for, and seems to be slowing down with) can be seen in Facebook's recent announcement about how they have changed the nature of the fan page. What I love most about Zuckerberg's post which announced the shift is the following statement:
"We'll begin rolling out the new home page next week, so please check out our home page tour to see the new design and let us know what you think about it."
This statement may not seem like a big deal, or may appear to be a farce, but we know that Facebook has actively listened to its users in the past.
Am I saying that it is impossible for companies to reinvent themselves and enter new markets? No. One only needs to look at the growth of IBM, from mainframes to desktops and Apple's growth from PC's to music devices to telecom, in order to see examples of the Innovators Dilemma being overcome. It is not impossible to constinuoulsy innovate over long periods of time, but it is very difficult. With that said, in The Battle for the Open Web, my money has moved from Google to Facebook (at least for now).